320 thousand PLN will have to be paid by the bookmaking company Totalbet to a political analysis specialist. A verdict has been passed in a high-profile case that “Rzeczpospolita” was the first to report on.
Łukasz Pawłowski, president of the Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, correctly predicted that the 2018 elections in Warsaw would be decided in one round, with Rafał Trzaskowski winning against Patryk Jaki.
Wiktor Ferfecki
In this article, you will learn:
- How expert knowledge helped win against a bookmaker and debunk the myth that “the house always wins”.
- What arguments the company used to refuse to pay out hundreds of thousands of zlotys in winnings.
- What led to the player’s victory in a court dispute lasting almost eight years.
- How this precedent-setting verdict might impact the future of the entire Polish betting industry.
– Almost every gambler knows the saying, “the house always wins.” I managed to at least partially debunk this theory – says Łukasz Pawłowski, president of Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, who on May 19th won his case against the Totalbet bookmaking company, which was ordered to pay him 320,000 PLN.
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IBSP and OGB have repeatedly managed to prepare accurate analyses. This was also the case before the 2018 elections.
Łukasz Pawłowski is a commentator on politics and a polling specialist who frequently appears in the media. He is the president of Ogólnopolska Grupa Badawcza, which describes itself as “the most frequently awarded research firm in Poland for accuracy.” He has published, among others, the best polls before the first and second rounds of the presidential elections in 2025, for which it received an award in the Golden Chalice of Pythia competition, organized by the Center for Quantitative Research on Politics at Jagiellonian University. OGB also won such awards for the presidential elections in 2020 and the European elections in 2024.
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Pawłowski’s company also had its less successful moments. For instance, before the 2019 European elections, operating under the name Institute for Public Affairs Research (Instytut Badań Spraw Publicznych), it mistakenly predicted a significant victory for the European Coalition, while PiS ultimately won the elections. This led to a public dispute between Pawłowski and Marcin Duma, head of IBRiS.
However, a year earlier, during the 2018 local government elections, Łukasz Pawłowski’s polling firm experienced a moment of triumph, correctly predicting, for example, that there would be no runoff in Warsaw and that Rafał Trzaskowski would win against Patryk Jaki in the first round. It was then that the dispute with Totalbet began.
We started analyzing bets at bookmakers for entertainment
At that time, Pawłowski managed the LokalnaPolityka.pl service, which published forecasts. In an interview with “Rzeczpospolita,” he recalls that he and his colleagues started analyzing the offer of betting companies for fun, enabling so-called political bets. – We started playing with small stakes at various bookmakers, and the offer of the then-debuting Totalbet caught our attention. It stood out with its offer, for example, the possibility of betting whether there would be a second round in major cities. We were also drawn to the surprising odds. For instance, betting that there would be no second round in Warsaw could yield a 15-fold return on the coupon – he adds.
Totalbet refused to pay out the high winnings, citing its regulations.
As Pawłowski tells us, his company’s polls indicated that there would be no second round in Warsaw. – These were our company’s first local government elections, and such high odds appealed to our ambition and imagination. The question arose: who is right – us or them? That’s why I decided to place the bet – he recalls.
As he explains, he bet on a total of seven cities, meaning he made a system bet, a so-called “tape,” where stakes are multiplied by the number of combinations. As a result, one of his 15 PLN coupons won approximately 150,000 PLN. – The low initial value of the coupon shows that my goal was not to cynically exploit a loophole in the system. I could have just as easily placed a coupon for several thousand zlotys and cleaned out the bookmaker – says Łukasz Pawłowski.
184.9 thousand PLN
awarded by the court to the president of OGB, including interest
Even so, the bookmaker refused to pay the winnings. And not only Pawłowski. Other individuals associated with the LokalnaPolityka.pl portal also placed bets, estimating their combined winnings in 2018 at 500,000 to 700,000 PLN. The exact amount is unknown because Totalbet blocked the players’ accounts, canceled the winnings, and adjusted the balances.
The reason? “Rzeczpospolita” was the first to write about Pawłowski’s dispute with Totalbet in 2019. At that time, we presented the bookmaker’s argument, according to which Pawłowski had more than one account, which is prohibited by the regulations. “The company analyzed the actions taken by Mr. and other players participating in the bets organized by the Company. Based on the information gathered about the actions taken by Mr. on his account, as well as by other players on accounts registered in their names, the Company concluded that there is a suspicion that other players made their accounts available to you,” Totalbet wrote.
Łukasz Pawłowski considers the company’s argument absurd, and in his opinion, the reason for not paying the money was obvious – the desire to avoid responsibility for incorrectly estimating the odds on political events. And the court agreed with Łukasz Pawłowski in this dispute.
Although the president of OGB won in court, he will have to wait for the money, as the verdict is not final.
The case dragged on for over seven years, and the ruling was issued on May 19th by the Regional Court in Warsaw-Praga. The court decided on Totalbet paying Łukasz Pawłowski 184.9 thousand PLN for winning bets and 14.7 thousand PLN as reimbursement of court costs – taking into account interest, approximately 320,000 PLN should be transferred to his account.
This is not the only such verdict. As we have unofficially learned, one of the individuals associated with the LokalnaPolityka.pl service managed to obtain a favorable court ruling in both instances. The remaining individuals – as we have learned unofficially – were offered settlements. Łukasz Pawłowski, who won the largest amount, will still have to wait for the money, as the verdict is not final.
Has the bookmaker filed an appeal? Totalbet did not respond to our questions. Pawłowski is convinced of an appeal. – The case has been ongoing for almost eight years, and I expect I will have to wait just as long for the second instance – he says. He emphasizes that he has no intention of backing down, as he considers the court proceedings important not only from his own perspective but also for other players who place bets with bookmakers.
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Industry portals dealing with gambling also describe the verdict as groundbreaking. “The court’s decision may also be significant for future disputes concerning the cancellation of bets and the interpretation of bookmaker regulations,” wrote the Gaming Polska service. “The multi-year process also showed how difficult and costly it can be to assert one’s rights through the courts,” it added.
Łukasz Pawłowski says that his case has already influenced the modification of game regulations in some companies offering betting services.